A midyear update on our economic and market outlook

These are the themes of our midyear economic and market outlook, a six-part, web-based package of research and insights for investors and advisors worldwide, issued today. The package represents an update on Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2023: Beating Back Inflation [61-page PDF], issued in December 2022.

Our midyear update:

• Begins with an introduction from our global chief economist, Joe Davis, who summarizes our views and explains in a brief video the silver lining for investors of higher interest rates.
• Details our forecasts for central bank interest rate targets, inflation, economic growth, and unemployment in:
  • The United States, Canada, and Mexico
  • The euro area and the United Kingdom
  • China and Australia
• Supplies our expectations for long-term market returns, to help investors set realistic expectations, as well as an update on Vanguard’s time-varying asset allocation model.
• Features Vanguard research on the likely performance of a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio in an era of high inflation and rising asset-class correlations.

A summary of our global views, details on our U.S. economic assessment, and our return forecasts for U.S. investors is available in a 5-page PDF.