Global markets
A midyear update on our economic and market outlook
June 26, 2023
Investors worldwide generally can expect continued, modest declines in inflation, relatively high and potentially still-rising interest rates, and some economic weakness in the months ahead. While strong equity and solid bond returns in the first half of 2023 have lowered most of our return forecasts, expected returns remain far above their levels at year-end 2021.
These are the themes of our midyear economic and market outlook, a six-part, web-based package of research and insights for investors and advisors worldwide, issued today. The package represents an update on Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2023: Beating Back Inflation [61-page PDF], issued in December 2022.
Our midyear update:
- Begins with an introduction from our global chief economist, Joe Davis, who summarizes our views and explains in a brief video the silver lining for investors of higher interest rates.
- Details our forecasts for central bank interest rate targets, inflation, economic growth, and unemployment in:
- Supplies our expectations for long-term market returns, to help investors set realistic expectations, as well as an update on Vanguard’s time-varying asset allocation model.
- Features Vanguard research on the likely performance of a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio in an era of high inflation and rising asset-class correlations.
A summary of our global views, details on our U.S. economic assessment, and our return forecasts for U.S. investors is available in a 5-page PDF.
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