Our data show that the rate of new hires as a percentage of the existing workforce has been declining in recent months. The latest reading stood at 2.5% in September 2023, down slightly from 2.6% in August and 2.7% in July.1
“We’ve been watching the new hires rate drop pretty steadily over the course of 2022 and 2023, which suggests a softening in the labor market,” said David Pakula, a Vanguard investment strategist.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data also show signs of a hiring slowdown this year. The survey of 21,000 establishments, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a measure of labor market strength and is closely watched by economists, policymakers, and financial advisors.