Economics and markets
July 08, 2026
Artificial intelligence is reshaping the economic and market landscape at an accelerating pace. In this short video, Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis outlines why AI investment may drive higher-than-consensus growth for the U.S. economy in 2027.
Two forces underpin this outlook: AI investment itself is accelerating faster than anticipated, while AI adoption is broadening quickly. But Davis urges caution and discipline among investors, given the euphoria in certain pockets of the U.S. stock market.
Read the transcript
Joe Davis: AI investment is going to continue to power the U.S. economy and the financial markets. As we look into 2027, our expectations are for higher-than-expected growth, predominantly because of the rate of acceleration in AI investment and adoption. As you know, this is a phenomenon, AI, that we have studied for some time, and our conviction in our view of higher-than-expected non-consensus growth of perhaps 3%—where the Federal Reserve expects 2%—our conviction is growing in that assessment.
Why? Because of the dimensions of the technology itself. AI investment by our metrics continues to accelerate even faster than our heady expectations. And the rate of adoption in the workplace and personal lives continues to rise at a steady and fast clip. And so when we look into 2027, we are optimistic on the economic front, despite some of the challenges that may remain in the headlines. And so we look to the markets. It’s one of both earnings momentum, which is very positive, but also emerging signs of market euphoria in parts of the U.S. market. So as investors, we will have to balance the opportunity to harness those gains while remaining diversified and not letting AI euphoria take us too far.
Notes:
All investing is subject to risk, including possible loss of principal.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.