Private sector job market insights for the public good

Starting this month, we will publish timely labor market insights that offer our view of shifts in hiring, job separations, and income growth, including our estimate of monthly U.S. job creation. The data, which will be released monthly on the Tuesday before U.S. nonfarm payroll numbers are released, are based on anonymized records of roughly five million workers participating in Vanguard-administered 401(k) plans. It will provide a unique, granular perspective on the U.S. labor market that complements government statistics and supports deeper analysis by policymakers, economists and other researchers, and journalists.

Government statistics are essential for understanding the economy, but they face growing headwinds. Declining response rates are making some surveys less reliable, and major events like the COVID-19 pandemic and government shutdowns have disrupted the flow of public data.

This is where private-sector data can add value. Private providers, including Vanguard, are increasingly able and willing to share real-time labor market insights that help bridge information gaps. Such data can complement government statistics and deepen understanding by offering a more granular view of the economy, which is especially valuable during periods of rapid change or uncertainty.

Recent research from the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, drawing upon Vanguard data and expertise, highlights the statistical value of private-sector data in predicting key macroeconomic indicators, such as nonfarm payroll employment and inflation. Our monthly release contributes meaningfully to this broader effort to support transparent, responsible data sharing. 

Our labor market insights focus on two core series that shed light on hiring dynamics and income growth, based on data from the retirement plans we administer:

• Net hires rate: Measures the net change in employment—new enrollments minus separations, as a share of firm employment—providing a timely signal of labor market momentum. It’s comparable to metrics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, but with detail that allows us to track changes by worker age, income level, and compensation type.

• Income growth: Tracks median year‑over‑year income growth among workers with at least one year of tenure. By capturing changes in both wages and hours worked, it provides a more complete picture of workers’ economic well‑being and aligns closely with the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Wage Growth Tracker.

We continue to see a labor market that is quietly resilient rather than on the cusp of a downturn. While low hiring rates can be an early warning sign, as firms typically slow hiring before resorting to layoffs, the current situation looks different from past cycles. Layoffs remain low, and hiring has cooled alongside a sharp slowdown in labor force growth, leaving the unemployment rate broadly unchanged over the past 18 months. Income growth remains stable in 2026, slightly above inflation. 

Beginning today, our new labor market webpage will serve as an ongoing home for our insights. Our goal is simple: to use Vanguard’s private data for the public good—broadening transparency, supporting better decision‑making, and helping more people understand how the labor market, and the broader economy, are evolving in real time.