Expert insight
March 03, 2026
Government statistics are invaluable in deciphering the state of the U.S. economy. But they don’t always tell the whole story. The limits of government data have been especially evident in the labor market, given declining response rates to government surveys since the COVID-19 pandemic and a rapidly changing labor market. Vanguard data can complement those official statistics.
Starting this month, we will publish timely labor market insights that offer our view of shifts in hiring, job separations, and income growth, including our estimate of monthly U.S. job creation. The data, which will be released monthly on the Tuesday before U.S. nonfarm payroll numbers are released, are based on anonymized records of roughly five million workers participating in Vanguard-administered 401(k) plans. It will provide a unique, granular perspective on the U.S. labor market that complements government statistics and supports deeper analysis by policymakers, economists and other researchers, and journalists.
Government statistics are essential for understanding the economy, but they face growing headwinds. Declining response rates are making some surveys less reliable, and major events like the COVID-19 pandemic and government shutdowns have disrupted the flow of public data.
This is where private-sector data can add value. Private providers, including Vanguard, are increasingly able and willing to share real-time labor market insights that help bridge information gaps. Such data can complement government statistics and deepen understanding by offering a more granular view of the economy, which is especially valuable during periods of rapid change or uncertainty.
Recent research from the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, drawing upon Vanguard data and expertise, highlights the statistical value of private-sector data in predicting key macroeconomic indicators, such as nonfarm payroll employment and inflation. Our monthly release contributes meaningfully to this broader effort to support transparent, responsible data sharing.
Our labor market insights focus on two core series that shed light on hiring dynamics and income growth, based on data from the retirement plans we administer:
We continue to see a labor market that is quietly resilient rather than on the cusp of a downturn. While low hiring rates can be an early warning sign, as firms typically slow hiring before resorting to layoffs, the current situation looks different from past cycles. Layoffs remain low, and hiring has cooled alongside a sharp slowdown in labor force growth, leaving the unemployment rate broadly unchanged over the past 18 months. Income growth remains stable in 2026, slightly above inflation.
Beginning today, our new labor market webpage will serve as an ongoing home for our insights. Our goal is simple: to use Vanguard’s private data for the public good—broadening transparency, supporting better decision‑making, and helping more people understand how the labor market, and the broader economy, are evolving in real time.