Monthly outlook

Our investment and economic outlook, April 2024

April 18, 2024

A graph shows changes in the core U.S. Consumer Price Index between 2020 and 2024. It also shows the contributions of three major core CPI components—goods, shelter, and services excluding shelter—to the overall rate of core inflation. Between 2020 and early 2021, core inflation was low, about 1.5 percent to 2 percent, but it then spiked to a peak of about 6.5 percent in 2022 before easing to roughly 4 percent this year. Changes in goods prices accounted for a meaningful portion of overall core inflation only in 2021 and 2022. For the last year or so, however, goods prices have had little effect on the core CPI. Changes in shelter prices have accounted for roughly 80 percent of core inflation and services excluding shelter have accounted for about 20 percent.
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