An economic tug-of-war: Innovation versus aging

The answer will do much to shape the course of the economy in the coming decade, Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, writes in a column recently published by The CEO Forum Group.

Using the Vanguard Megatrends Model™, he outlines two primary scenarios: one where artificial intelligence drives productivity gains that lift economic growth to 3% by the 2030s (with a 45%–55% probability), and another where fiscal deficits and aging populations suppress growth (30%–40% probability). Davis encourages investors to prepare for both outcomes by building resilient portfolios.

Read the column, which summarizes a key theme of Davis’s new book, Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments.