Research paper
May 11, 2026
Target-date funds (TDFs) have helped millions of retirement savers navigate the accumulation phase with confidence. But as more participants approach retirement, a bigger challenge comes into focus: how to turn a 401(k) balance into a reliable income stream that can last a lifetime, without forcing retirees to become their own actuaries.
Vanguard research suggests that one practical answer may lie in pairing traditional target-date funds with a modest allocation to deferred-income annuities (DIA). According to Making Guaranteed Income Target-Date Funds Work in the Real World: Annuitization Benefits and Product Design, a recently published paper by Vanguard’s Ankul Daga, Vibhor Dave, and Matthew Tufano, a target-date fund with a carefully designed deferred-income annuity sleeve inside can meaningfully improve late-in-life income security—while preserving flexibility for participants who choose not to annuitize.
The paper finds that combining a conventional TDF with a modest sleeve earmarked for guaranteed lifetime income can help create a late-in-life income floor in the scenarios participants fear most—outliving their savings, often amid weak or volatile markets. This approach is designed to address a core gap in retirement planning.
For participants focused on retirement income security, the pairing offers a familiar, low-cost TDF supplemented by a durable source of lifetime income, without requiring a full commitment to annuitization.
“TDFs manage accumulation and investment risk systematically over a participant’s working life, and annuities manage longevity risk—the uncertainty of not knowing how long retirement income needs to last,” Dave said. “Together, they address participant needs throughout their lives, not just the accumulation phase.”
Our analysis compared guaranteed income TDFs allocating to three types of lifetime-income annuities: immediate annuities, DIAs, and longevity-only income that begins later in retirement. Of these, deferred-income designs emerged as the most consistently effective at improving late-in-life income security across diverse participant cohorts.
The research examined:
When we assessed outcomes across participant cohorts defined by gender, income, education, and health, deferred-income designs delivered the strongest, most robust improvements in late-in-life consumption security.
“In our analysis, a modest deferred-income sleeve—capped at approximately 25% of the portfolio—can meaningfully improve late-life consumption security for participants who live longer while preserving some growth potential or liquidity,” Daga said. “Other annuity options may be effective for some, but their value can be more sensitive to spending rules and timing.”
Source: Vanguard
“Change in certainty equivalent” is a term used to express the differences in bequest and income between TDFs with various guaranteed income options and TDFs that don’t include these options.
Source: Making Guaranteed Income Target-Date Funds Work in the Real World: Annuitization Benefits and Product Design (Vanguard, 2026).
Most importantly, DIA TDFs are designed to preserve participant choice. Research consistently shows that most participants do not annuitize, and plan sponsors should assume that many will continue to do so even if the plan selects a TDF with a guaranteed income option.1
“The research is clear that heterogeneity matters,” Dave said. “Participants with shorter expected horizons, smaller balances, or high Social Security coverage may be indifferent to a deferred-income sleeve, or in some cases better off without it. A well-designed guaranteed income TDF should build in protections for these types of participants.”
These guidelines are central to the paper’s conclusions and to the practical design of DIA-based guaranteed income TDFs. They include:
Together, these guardrails support population-level benefits of DIA TDFs while limiting predictable downside cases. Vanguard’s research offers practical ways to enhance retirement security by providing a steady income floor in old age. “A modest, deferred-income sleeve can improve outcomes for most retirees while minimizing the risk for those who choose not to annuitize,” Daga said.
1 Sources: Retirement Income in Defined Contribution Plans: Adoption, Design Preferences, and the Role of Optionality (Epperson and Bailey, 2025); Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association Retirement Research Center; and Survey of Consumer Finances, 2019 (Federal Reserve, 2020).
Notes:
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All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
Investments in Target Retirement Funds and Trusts are subject to the risks of their underlying funds. The year in the fund or trust name refers to the approximate year (the target date) when an investor in the fund or trust would retire and leave the workforce. The fund/trust will gradually shift its emphasis from more aggressive investments to more conservative ones based on its target date. The Income Trust/Fund and Income and Growth Trust have fixed investment allocations and are designed for investors who are already retired. An investment in a Target Retirement Fund or Trust is not guaranteed at any time, including on or after the target date.
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Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income. All annuities are subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Investments in bond portfolios are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
Guarantees are subject to the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company.
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Deferred annuities are long-term vehicles designed for retirement purposes and contain underlying investment portfolios that are subject to market fluctuation, investment risk, and possible loss of principal. If you take withdrawals from a variable annuity prior to age 59½, you may have to pay ordinary income tax plus a 10% federal penalty tax.
Immediate variable annuities contain underlying investment portfolios that are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal.