Monthly outlook

Our investment and economic outlook, February 2024

February 16, 2024

A line graph shows percentage deviations from trend in the levels of revolving credit compared with both gross domestic product and disposable personal income. The deviations from trend are shown starting in 2020 and continuing through 2023. Vanguard forecasts are shown through the end of 2024. Revolving credit fell below its trend levels compared with both variables in 2019 and 2020, touching a low of about 0.6 percent below trend relative to GDP and about 2.2 percent below trend relative to disposable personal income. Both variables have since risen closer to trend levels, but both remain perhaps 0.3 percent below trend at the start of 2024. Vanguard expects both variables to get closer to their trend levels by year-end.
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