Timely insights and observations

New Vanguard research explores how investors are increasingly using passive funds to build active portfolios.

Not converting to a Roth because you expect to be in a lower tax bracket at retirement? An analysis using the break-even tax rate (BETR) finds that you may be missing out on tax advantages.

Even for investors who buy stocks for their long-term growth potential, sharp drops can still be hard to stomach. Here are some things to keep in mind if a market tumble makes you feel the need to “do something.”

Our scenarios-based approach to forecasting amid war in Ukraine acknowledges that we can’t predict the future.

Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why market volatility and downturns happen and why they’re an integral part of investing.

Vanguard’s annual All Cans on Deck drive supports hunger relief agencies in our communities and around the world.

Cryptocurrency has become a hot investing topic recently. Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis weighs in with his views on the value of crypto and the technology behind it.

Our quarterly in-depth commentary offers a sector-by-sector analysis and a summary of how our views affect the Vanguard active bond funds.

Vanguard experts discuss the Fed’s balance sheet reduction plan compared with previous quantitative tightening and potential implications.

In this panel discussion hosted by Portfolio Management Research, Jim Rowley Jr., CFA, head of investor research in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, offers his perspective on direct indexing.

The litany of economic and market woes may tempt investors to go all cash, but that’s virtually ensuring a negative return when adjusted for inflation. Patience has historically been the key to portfolio success.

How is diversity, equity, and inclusion embedded in Vanguard’s culture? Vanguard Chief Diversity Officer Crystal Hardie Langston discusses that and more.

Vanguard research explores how investors can implement direct indexing in a portfolio and explains why tax-loss harvesting frequency is a major factor in this process.

In this panel discussion hosted by Portfolio Management Research, Jim Rowley Jr., CFA, head of investor research in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, offers his perspective on how investors are using passive strategies for active exposures.

Vanguard’s European chief economist, Jumana Saleheen, says central banks face a stiff test in trying to control inflation and ward off recession.

In this panel discussion hosted by Portfolio Management Research, Jim Rowley, head of Investor Research in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, offers his perspective on why the indexing/active decision is not a binary choice.

We expect economic growth in 2022 to range from about 2.5% in the euro area to about 5.5% in emerging markets overall, though war in Ukraine raises uncertainty. Our return forecasts are muted, but there may be opportunities for investors willing to bear extra risk.

In this second of two Q&As, John Galloway discusses Vanguard’s views on climate change and the role that effective stewardship will play throughout the energy transition to mitigate the financial threat to long-term investors.

Investors prefer some aspects of human advice over digital but perceive value in all advice services, a Vanguard survey finds. For these reasons, it is critical that they have access to a wide range of advice services.

Should you adjust your asset mix as inflation persists? Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis weighs in.

Vanguard has an important role to play in engaging and encouraging real progress by portfolio companies to mitigate the potential consequences of climate change. 

Vanguard was recently announced as a founding member, and the sole asset management company presence, of the Global Parity Alliance, a group dedicated to advancing DEI across multiple industries.

This piece describes how understanding changes in volatility, stock-bond correlation, and inflation can affect a retirement withdrawal strategy.  It draws from research set to publish in The Journal of Retirement later this year, “Sustainable Withdrawal Rates by Return Environment: A Time-Varying Bayesian Analysis”. Andy Clarke, CFA and Kevin Khang, PhD are featured throughout.

A new analysis by Vanguard economist Adam Schickling suggests workers will continue to leave jobs of their own accord at a high rate through 2022, and that will likely keep wage growth elevated.

With the rollout of 5G networks, we see more value in fixed income among wireless telecoms and cell tower operators than in technology and digital media companies. 

Vanguard’s investment stewardship efforts in 2021 include global advocacy, engagement, and voting activities.

An inverted yield curve doesn’t necessarily foreshadow a recession, according to Vanguard’s Andrew Patterson and John Madziyire.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to Russian securities. A chart presents Vanguard funds with direct exposure, as well as the extent of their exposure, as of March 31, 2022.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to Russian securities and will adhere to sanctions against Russia.

Maria Bruno, head of U.S. wealth planning research at Vanguard, offers five suggestions for investors making IRA contributions during tax season. Maybe the most important tip? Contribute early.

While current valuations leave some room for upside, we believe identifying and avoiding downside surprises will be key.

Investing in high-yield corporate credit is a lot like investing in its investment-grade counterpart. The difference really lies with where the key risks are.

During this time of uncertainty, we are supporting our investors, employees, and those most directly affected by the war in Ukraine.

Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley and Nick Eisinger, co-head of emerging markets active fixed income, discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on emerging markets and the associated risk. They also discuss the monetary policy outlook ahead of key meetings in the U.S. and Europe.

Higher oil prices resulting from events in Ukraine are likely to trim economic growth and accelerate inflation to levels beyond what was previously expected.

Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley explains how cutting expense ratios—an integral part of our corporate philosophy—aligns with our unique corporate structure.

Events in Ukraine understandably test investors’ resolve. At such a time, it’s best to take emotions out of investing.

In this first of two Q&As, John Galloway, global head of Vanguard’s Investment Stewardship team, discusses corporate governance practices and how Vanguard addresses ESG risks that can affect long-term shareholder value in its equity funds.

Markets have come under pressure amid heightened geopolitical risks. In times like these, often the best strategy is to stay focused on your goals and maintain your disciplined approach.

Vanguard expects China to set its 2022 growth target in the 5% to 6% range at its annual policy proceeding in March. The announcement will say a lot about a Chinese economy at a crossroads.

Markets have come under pressure amid perceived new risks. Now is a time to maintain your fortitude and remain focused on your long-term goals.

Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis discusses some reasons why investors have gravitated toward exchange-traded funds in recent years and why mutual funds still play a vital role for some types of investors.

Sara Devereux, head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group, discusses what to expect over the next few years based on a recent Fed announcement about raising rates.

Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis discusses recent developments in the global economy and our return expectations for the U.S. equity markets.

Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley discusses tangible and intangible aspects of how companies are valued and shares his thoughts on meme stocks and cryptocurrency.

Vanguard Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tim Buckley, Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis, Head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group Sara Devereux, and moderator Massy Williams, head of strategic operations for Vanguard Financial Advisor Services, discussed Vanguard’s economic and market outlook for 2022 and answered audience questions.  

Lowering the cost of investing has always been Vanguard’s mission. We’re well on our way to saving shareholders $1 billion in fees and expenses by 2025.

Learn how Vanguard’s partnerships with academic institutions have been mutually beneficial and helped develop practical solutions for investors.

Heightened volatility and market losses early in 2022 emphasize the value for investors of a long- term focus.

ETFs are enjoying explosive growth because they offer potential advantages that include flexibility, diversification, lower costs, and potential tax benefits. To understand why the ETF market is efficient and resilient at a time of record inflows, rising assets, and market volatility, explore a process that includes a number of market participants working together to meet investor demand.

With inflation at multidecade highs, the Federal Reserve appears prepared to raise its key interest rate target, perhaps as early as March. Vanguard economists Josh Hirt, Asawari Sathe, and Adam Schickling discuss the Fed’s considerations.

Central banks will need to act decisively to rein in accelerating inflation, according to Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist. Long-term, that’s good for investors.

Our 2022 Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook focuses on new sources of risk for the economy and financial markets, including stretched valuations for equity markets, rising interest rates, and an uncertain inflationary environment.

Semiconductor shortages have been making an impact around the world. From a credit perspective, though, we are cautious on the semiconductor industry. With bond valuations of chip manufacturers becoming extremely tight, we see more value downstream among their customers, especially industrial equipment manufacturers. 

Vanguard research suggests that the office is not going away, it’s evolving. Investing in office space, though more complex, may give active managers with deep fundamental analysis capabilities opportunities for outperformance. The return to work is likely to result in a new office normal that will vary by region, industry sector, and property class.

Vanguard offers perspective on U.S. stock valuations, the next peak in the Federal Reserve’s target for short-term interest rates, the property sector in China, and the COVID-19 Omicron variant.

Personalized, realistic projections of longevity and health care costs in retirement could provide a better foundation for planning than conservative assumptions.

A recently updated Vanguard research paper on paying for college discusses why it’s important for parents and students to plan strategically and understand how their spending decisions affect their broader financial situation. 

Higher yields can lead to improved total returns from bonds if an investor’s horizon exceeds their bond portfolio’s duration.

Comparing today’s environment with that of the 1970s overlooks a key difference: today’s strong demand for labor.

China’s economy has grown since the 1990s from being a tenth of the size of the U.S. economy to close to two-thirds the size. This raises some natural questions, including, “When might China become the world’s largest economy?” and “What are the potential portfolio implications of such a new economic order?”

Vanguard research found that it would take considerably more inflation than we’re expecting to diminish the diversifying power of bonds in a balanced portfolio.

New research finds that global trade growth is likely to slow—but not contract—in the decade ahead. What’s more, we believe the implications for investors may not be as great as they seem. 

Markets weren’t too surprised to see a run-up in inflation in much of the world in 2021. But readings have been hotter than forecast. With accommodative monetary and fiscal policies expected to remain in place for some time, could elevated rates of inflation persist in 2022 and beyond?

Analysts in our Fixed Income Group examine the market of crossover bonds—investment-grade bonds recently downgraded to high yield (fallen angels) and their opposite (rising stars). Such issues, which ballooned amid a wave of credit-quality downgrades in the pandemic’s opening days, historically have offered attractive risk-adjusted returns.

The forecasts by Vanguard's global economics and markets team inform the longer-term allocation decisions in our multiasset and advice offers. We hope they also help clients set their own reasonable expectations.

A Vanguard survey of nearly 2,500 investors found a tendency to underestimate the financial risks of cognitive decline, particularly among women. We discuss the implications for investors and their agents and advisors. 

Vanguard assesses the fixed income ecosystem during the height of the COVID-19 volatility, including the liquidity crush and investors’ “dash for cash,” and offers high-level policy recommendations for the path forward.

A strong upswing in U.S. employment should unfurl in the coming months, paving the way for a full labor market recovery by mid-2022. Josh Hirt, a Vanguard economist, explains.  

The economy and markets have recovered at a faster-than-anticipated pace from the pandemic. But the global outlook continues to hinge on health outcomes, according to Vanguard’s midyear forecasts.

With net interest income—traditionally banks’ bread-and-butter business—continuing to decline, many bankers have been trying to adapt by seeking revenue opportunities elsewhere. New business models, though, have brought new challenges in assessing their credit fundamentals.

Sara Devereux became global head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group (FIG) on July 1, 2021, succeeding John Hollyer, who stepped down after more than 30 years at Vanguard. In this interview, the two leaders join Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis in a discussion about the bond market, Sara's plans for FIG, and John's extraordinary Vanguard career.

John James, head of Vanguard Institutional Investor Group, looks back at the 20-year history of How America Saves. Our seminal report has provided key insights on the defined contribution landscape and ultimately helped to improve investors’ retirement readiness.

As newly vaccinated individuals unleash their pent-up demand for goods and services, questions naturally arise about resurgent inflation and interest rates, and what central banks will do next. Our research indicates that central bank policy rates and interest rates more broadly are likely to rise, but only modestly, in the next several years.

Given low bond yields and high stock valuations, shortfall risk is almost a given in today’s market. We explore factors that influence the ability of investors and institutions to meet their financial goals and discuss circumstances in which private equity could help. 

Cryptocurrencies have attracted much attention and more than trace amounts of speculation. Roger Aliaga-Díaz, our chief economist for the Americas and head of portfolio construction, cautions investors, noting among other risks that cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated.

The Federal Reserve left its target for the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its March 17 meeting. Its approach to inflation and the labor market means rate hikes may be a way off.

It’s hard to identify an asset bubble before it bursts. But Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis wonders about the valuations of cryptocurrencies and low-quality growth stocks. Ultimately, he argues, valuations should reflect “plausible future income” scenarios.

Vanguard believes private equity investments have the potential to enhance long-term returns for investors who can accept the accompanying liquidity and manager risks. In this paper, the authors employ the Vanguard Asset Allocation Model to present a framework for assessing the merits of private equity in diversified, strategic portfolios.

Higher real interest rates should cool, but not stop, the labor market and the greater economy. And they bring longer-term benefits.

There are times when small-cap equities outperform large-caps and vice versa, but they are not expected to do so in any meaningful way over the long term.

New Vanguard research indicates that investors are frequently using non-total market index funds to build portfolios with active exposures, according to “How Investors Use Passive for Active,” a paper authored by Vanguard’s Jan-Carl Plagge, Haifeng Wang, and Jim Rowley. The paper was published in the The Journal of Beta Investment Strategies.

Vanguard global chief economist outlines the current draw of international equities as well as their enduring role as a diversifier in a portfolio.

Vanguard research suggests that certain sub-asset-classes have consistently outperformed during rising real rate environments.

Vanguard global chief economist expects fixed income returns to be modest over the next decade but doesn’t see a bear bond market on the horizon.

What’s behind the rapid rise in electronic bond trading and how has it been playing out for derivatives trading in our Fixed Income Group?

U.S. investors added $900 billion to ETFs in 2021. We examine the drivers of their popularity. 

The earliest college savers tend to require lower monthly savings rates over time, have more flexibility when they need to pivot, and get a jump start on understanding the nuances of the college tuition landscape—including the difference between sticker price and net price paid.

Learn about Vanguard’s investment philosophy and disciplined approach in a volatile market environment.

For many, the sticker price and net cost of college are vastly different numbers. What might your net cost be?

Vanguard has an important role to play to safeguard investors from material financial risks, including climate risk, and to mitigate potential harm to long-term shareholder value.

Following interest rate increases in early 2022, the tax-equivalent yield on municipal bonds is now greater than the yield of other major fixed income sectors.

Many retired early during the pandemic, but some may have to return to work. Are there other options to meet the savings gap?

In the rough start to 2022, the trading behavior of the vast majority of Vanguard clients indicates that they have stayed the course.

With stocks and bonds well into negative territory, it’s tempting to call the traditional balanced portfolio dead. But we’ve been here before, says Roger Aliaga-Díaz, chief economist for the Americas and head of portfolio construction in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.

Vanguard has downgraded economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and China, but recession isn’t likely.

A COVID-19 lockdown strategy that succeeded in the pandemic’s early days is likely to hold back China’s economy.

Vanguard Chief Diversity Officer Crystal Hardie Langston gets to the bottom of a common misconception about DEI and who can contribute.

The proprietary Vanguard Financial Conditions Index has tightened noticeably in recent months. Vanguard economists explain where financial conditions stand now and why it matters.

With surging inflation, the euro area will be hiking interest rates into positive territory later this year. Vanguard updates its forecasts for this year and next.

The Great Resignation was also the Great Retirement. For some, it may become the Great Sabbatical, as retirees return to work. Learn why from Vanguard’s latest research.

Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis explains the key elements that set us apart—expertise, a disciplined approach, and a global presence.

The era of ultra-low neutral rates may be coming to an end as some of the drivers behind it are lessening or even reversing.

How are investors hedging against the surge in inflation? Our investment strategists looked at their usage of TIPS in 2021.

A Vanguard study using natural language processing of biographical data for fund investment teams finds higher performance from teams with gender diversity.

Vanguard marked Juneteenth with an event  focused on the history behind the racial wealth gap and measures governments and businesses can take to help address it.

At best, you may marginally improve returns through market timing. At worst, you could drastically lower returns.

One key strategy to boost retirement plan participant outcomes: offer an advice option like a target date fund. Here we discuss findings in Vanguard’s 2022 How America Saves report, along with key insights that can enhance plan design.

What part do differences in industry allocations between ESG funds and the broader equity market play in explaining ESG fund performance?

Vanguard principal Jean Lu received an Ascend A-List Award for leading inclusivity opportunities for Asian professionals.

After 25 years, Vanguard Managing Director Karin Risi is unwavering in her focus on clients and fulfilling Vanguard’s mission.

Inflation is putting economies on the path to recession. In this short video, Vanguard’s global chief economist discusses how that could be avoided.

Vanguard employs performance incentive/penalty arrangements with many of its external investment advisors.

In case you missed it: Vanguard recently shared its 2022 midyear economic and market outlook. In it, Vanguard’s global and regional chief economists discuss increased inflation, muted growth, and recessionary fears.

The latest quarterly issue of Vanguard Active Fixed Income Perspectives discusses some bright spots amid the horror show that this year has been for bond investors.

How automatic retirement plan features can boost participant savings rates and enhance long-term outcomes.

What’s at the center of Vanguard’s culture? Vanguard CHRO Lauren Valente explains who and what matter most.

A buy-and-hold strategy often means staying the course, even in turbulent times. How do the expectations of today’s investors line up with their trading behaviors?

How advisors can add alpha through services such as financial planning, discipline, and guidance.

A look at U.S. donor responses to health and humanitarian crises and recent nonprofit sector trends.

In this Q&A, Roger Aliaga-Díaz and Nathan Zahm talk about their strategy for developing, validating, and modifying the assumptions behind the selection of a Target Retirement Fund glide path.

As Vanguard managing director Tom Rampulla advises, discipline is key to meeting your financial goals, especially during market volatility.

A recently published analysis by Vanguard Fixed Income Group explains why rates may be coming down in emerging markets.

Certain retirement plan provisions can help workers continue to save, even when they switch jobs.

How Vanguard strategically builds portfolio asset allocation models based on goals, preferences, and beliefs: a customized solution that meets a wide range of investor needs.

Managers of the International Growth Fund discuss the markets and why optimists are better for your portfolio.

How can you drive a more inclusive environment? Vanguard chief diversity officer Crystal Hardie Langston shares some tips.

As the geopolitical battle over Ukraine intensifies, Europe in particular is exposed to a potential energy crisis, but there would be implications for the global economy too.

How far will central banks go to curb inflation? Well above neutral rate, Vanguard economists say.

Three scenarios that the Fed could face in the coming months—a hard landing, stagflation, and a softish landing.

EM corporates coming off tight spread levels relative to sovereigns and developed-market corporate credit has created pockets of value for investors.

A Vanguard analysis shows why lofty earnings expectations shouldn’t overly concern the U.S. equity market.

When a recession occurs, we don’t know precisely when equity markets will recover. But equity prices have frequently started to recover before the end of the recession.

Recession is more likely than not over the next 24 months in many developed markets, including the U.S. We expect the Fed to raise rates to at least 4% in 2023 to fight inflation.

Our global chief economist discusses the probabilities of a soft landing, hard landing, or stagflation.

Thinking beyond market-capitalization-weighted portfolios to address complex investor preferences.

Learn about Vanguard’s efforts to make our buildings more environmentally friendly and lower operational costs.

Vanguard Retail Investor Group Managing Director Matt Benchener reveals the question  he’s asked most from investors.

Vanguard researchers home in on the US cycle of innovation and what current trends mean for future economic growth.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis speaks with Barron’s Live about recent market and economic trends.

Index products that screen out certain business activities can help meet the needs of many ESG-oriented investors.

Vanguard is honored as a 2022 Best Place to Work for Disability Inclusion.

Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis discusses the drivers of how his team assembles its economic and market outlook.

Vanguard active bond managers offer their risk-reward outlook for bond funds as inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates.

In a short video, Vanguard’s global head of portfolio construction contrasts time-varying and tactical asset allocation.

Vanguard research shows that inflation doesn’t affect optimal Social Security claiming strategies.

With the Fed rapidly raising rates, ETF investors may need reminders on how to approach ETF trades on days of Fed announcements.

There’s no place like home, even when it comes to stock investing. Forthcoming Vanguard research discusses investor local bias, what that disposition means for a portfolio, and how a few small tweaks can strengthen an investor’s asset allocation.

Under what conditions do we give new funds the green light to join our lineup? Learn more from Vanguard Managing Director Karin Risi.

A look at how European insurers’ investment behavior is likely to shape credit performance in Europe.

Vanguard is assessing ways to provide individual investors the opportunity to participate more directly in the proxy voting process.

Among the many rebalancing methods, we seek the one that is more risk-return-efficient and cost-effective than others.

Vanguard crew around the world joined forces in early October for the 2022 Vanguard Gives Back campaign, under the theme of Stronger Together.

A recently published Vanguard research paper shows that valuing or benchmarking advice recommendations against an investor’s current plan helps advisors prioritize those recommendations to employ the highest-value strategies.

Our latest monthly survey of global economies has raised the inflation rate forecast for the U.S., while recession is likely for the euro area.

Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund’s manager talks about the market’s cyclical nature, the beginning of a regime change, and using cyclical stocks as a hedge against inflation.

The changing landscape in consumer-related high-yield should give active bond managers with deep credit analysis capabilities some opportunities to outperform.

Q3 was another bad quarter for bonds, but yields are attractive, providing pockets of opportunity. Learn more in our latest quarterly active fixed income perspectives.

The traditional target-date fund might be too conservative for some retirees in poor health. Such investors might consider personalized advice.

Vanguard managing director John James describes how simple it can be to start saving for retirement, from taking advantage of the company match within an employer plan to considering a target-date fund.

Updated Vanguard research highlights three key steps to help people choose Medicare coverage options.

Quickly rising global interest rates increase the prospect of dislocations in distinct market corners. Financial markets seek certainty that policymakers can lead the economy to a comfortable place.

Maria Bruno, Head of U.S. Wealth Planning Research at Vanguard, explains what investors should keep in mind to determine whether they are on track for a secure retirement.

A Vanguard economist looks at factors underlying the current strength of the U.S. dollar against most currencies.

Despite market turbulence, many municipalities display strong fundamentals. Average municipal yields are at their highest levels in 10 years.

Our latest bimonthly Investor Expectations Survey indicates that while pessimism among investors has eased somewhat, it remains at a high level.

Vanguard municipal bond portfolio managers talk about the market, the state of municipal balance sheets, and how muni funds have prepared for economic uncertainty.

With interest rates going up and likely to stay elevated, what’s the implication for the balanced portfolio? Short-term pain but relief with brighter prospects, possibly by next year, says our head of portfolio construction.

Vanguard managing director Tom Rampulla shares why he still works at the firm after 33 years.

Investors have been adopting digital platforms at a brisk pace during the pandemic, but security concerns have kept others from fully embracing them. Learn more in this commentary from Vanguard’s head of the retail digital experience.

Inflation is becoming broad-based and recession is likely in Europe but not in the U.S., at least for 2022.

With the litany of negative economic and market news, it’s tempting to stay on the sidelines. But, based on market history, Vanguard CIO Greg Davis says it’s better to stay in the game.

Vanguard’s Joel Dickson explains why a more holistic approach to financial advice can help investors reach their goals.

Investors are feeling more pessimistic about the short-term outlook in financial markets and are having to tap their retirement savings for cash.

The U.S. Treasury market, the world’s deepest, is suffering from a lack of liquidity. With this risk in mind, Vanguard’s active fixed income funds are managing for stability.

Research, dialogue, and collaboration with a side of heathy debate sum up Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis’s regular schedule. Learn more about what goes into his day and what comes out of team discussions.

The distinct aspects of bond ETFs are becoming more important to grasp as fixed income ETF use grows. 

Our base case is a global recession in 2023 brought about by the efforts to reduce inflation.