Vanguard research

U.S. housing: Cyclical weakness, structural strength

June 08, 2023

An area chart shows undersupply and oversupply expressed as houses for sale from January 1984 through December 2022. There was a notable period of oversupply in the mid-1980s and an even greater spike around the middle of the first decade of this century. In contrast, there has been significant undersupply more recently, especially in the last 3 years.
An area chart shows the 6-month rolling forward average of outstanding mortgages as interest rates that are lower than current mortgage rates.  The percentage was high at times in the 1990s, in the middle of the first decade of this century, and in 2022. It was relatively low in the early part of the first decade and in the early 2010s. The previous peak was reached in the summer of 2000.


Ian Kresnak, CFA
Konstantin Nikolaev, CFA
Peter Maguire, CFA
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