Economy and markets

The jobs outlook beyond the reopening of the economy

August 03, 2021

Josh Hirt's headshot

Economist, Vanguard Investment Strategy Group

Initial progress in the wake of the pandemic was encouraging

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The stage is set for stronger job gains

An acceleration in job creation should bring full U.S. employment closer
The illustration shows a solid line representing actual total U.S. employment through June 2021 and a dotted line with Vanguard’s employment forecast through October 2021. The actual employment figure stands at about 157 million workers in January 2019, rises slightly to about 159 million by February 2020, falls sharply to about 133 million in April 2020, then back upward, sharply at first then gradually, to about 152 million by June 2021. The dotted line then shows Vanguard’s employment forecast reaching about 153 million workers in July 2021 and rising to 160 million by the end of 2022. The forecast includes a noticeable acceleration from August 2021 through October 2021 in the number of workers employed.

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