Any immediate rebound in consumption could come from the well-off in China more than the common laborer. When the affluent do spend, the immediate beneficiaries will likely be the makers of luxury goods, the tourism industry, and educational services.
In pre-COVID 2019, Chinese travelers accounted for roughly 20% of all tourism spending, according to data from the World Trade Organization. If that type of spending pattern resumes for 2023, the economies most likely to benefit are those in Asia. (Nine of the top 10 countries most visited by Chinese tourists in 2019 were in Asia.)
Educational services—primarily overseas study at universities—will also likely rebound, mainly in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
A rebound in China’s economy, particularly for travel, will also benefit exporters of commodities such as oil and natural gas. However, this also means higher inflationary pressures that present a challenge for central banks.