Asset classes
Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q1 2024: Yield mountain
February 02, 2024
Bond investors who rode a figurative gondola to what was likely the top of “Yield Mountain” in October experienced the thrill of the sudden descent in the following two months. Although that initial yield drop may prove to be the largest, fixed income investors should enjoy the run ahead.
Vanguard Active Fixed Income Perspectives is our in-depth quarterly commentary on the bond markets, with sector-by-sector analysis and a summary of how those views affect Vanguard’s actively managed bond funds.
Key takeaways
Performance
In mid-October, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note crossed 5%. Then, slower inflation and a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve fueled an all-asset rally to end the year. The 10-year fell quickly below 4% and credit spreads squeezed tighter. Market pricing reflects a soft landing for the economy.
Looking ahead
Our positive view on the value of fixed income still holds. We expect interest rates to ultimately settle above the unusually low levels experienced after the 2008 global financial crisis. Investors can capture durable, resilient yields, and if rates decline, additional price appreciation.
Approach
Credit spreads are narrow, but overall yields remain attractive. We still hold an up-in-quality bias. Corporate credit and high-yield spreads should widen later this year as the economy weakens, but not to extremes. We await a better entry point to add lower-quality risk. Municipal bonds exhibit strong fundamentals and attractive tax-adjusted yields, with the most value out on the curve and down in credit rating.
Active fixed income perspectives: Q1 2024
Note: Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
