Research summary

From innovation to economic growth: Big things are coming

September 12, 2022

Where have all the innovations gone?
The link between innovation and economic expansion
U.S. GDP growth is riding the productivity wave
Bar chart shows real GDP growth over 10-year spans since the 1960s. Over time, the contributions to real GDP growth from both population growth and real GDP growth per capita have been declining, resulting in lower real GDP growth rates. However, the forecast for 2020 to 2030 is for real GDP growth near levels last seen in the 1990s.
Higher productivity buffers GDP growth from rising interest rates
Line chart shows that the change in the year-over-year GDP growth rate remains consistently positive, with fewer fluctuations during higher-productivity regimes. The rate swings dramatically from positive to negative several times during lower-productivity regimes but rarely reaches the rate seen during the higher-productivity regimes.
Additional Vanguard Megatrends research:


Adam Shickling
Vanguard Information and Insights

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