Economics and markets

Vanguard forecast: Slower global economic growth but no recession

June 09, 2022

United States: Slower but continued growth
Europe: Spiking inflation means higher rate hikes
China: 2022 growth target is likely to be missed
Impact on global economy and Fed monetary policies
The federal funds rate in select scenarios
Line graph showing projections in the changes to the effective federal funds rate based on select scenarios. For another global oil shock, the fed funds rate is projected to reach 3% in 2024, as the Fed prioritizes fighting inflation. For a global recession, it reaches 3% in 2027 as the Fed slows its rate hikes to combat unemployment. The baseline scenario lies in between the two scenarios, reaching 3% around 2025.

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