Keeping perspective in times like these

Even for investors who buy stocks for their long-term growth potential, sharp drops can still be hard to stomach. Here are some things to keep in mind if a market tumble makes you feel the need to “do something.”

Our scenarios-based approach to forecasting amid war in Ukraine acknowledges that we can’t predict the future.

Higher real interest rates should cool, but not stop, the labor market and the greater economy. And they bring longer-term benefits.

An inverted yield curve doesn’t necessarily foreshadow a recession, according to Vanguard’s Andrew Patterson and John Madziyire.

With surging inflation, the euro area will be hiking interest rates into positive territory later this year. Vanguard updates its forecasts for this year and next.

Vanguard has downgraded economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and China, but recession isn’t likely.

A COVID-19 lockdown strategy that succeeded in the pandemic’s early days is likely to hold back China’s economy.

In the rough start to 2022, the trading behavior of the vast majority of Vanguard clients indicates that they have stayed the course.

Learn about Vanguard’s investment philosophy and disciplined approach in a volatile market environment.

Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why market volatility and downturns happen and why they’re an integral part of investing.

Vanguard experts discuss the Fed’s balance sheet reduction plan compared with previous quantitative tightening and potential implications.

The litany of economic and market woes may tempt investors to go all cash, but that’s virtually ensuring a negative return when adjusted for inflation. Patience has historically been the key to portfolio success.

Vanguard’s European chief economist, Jumana Saleheen, says central banks face a stiff test in trying to control inflation and ward off recession.

This piece describes how understanding changes in volatility, stock-bond correlation, and inflation can affect a retirement withdrawal strategy.  It draws from research set to publish in The Journal of Retirement later this year, “Sustainable Withdrawal Rates by Return Environment: A Time-Varying Bayesian Analysis”. Andy Clarke, CFA and Kevin Khang, PhD are featured throughout.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to Russian securities. A chart presents Vanguard funds with direct exposure, as well as the extent of their exposure, as of March 31, 2022.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to Russian securities and will adhere to sanctions against Russia.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked us all. It has caused a tragic loss of life and a humanitarian crisis. The political, social, and economic ramifications are still unfolding. And we know the impact of this war stretches beyond borders, including reaching many of our clients and our employees.

In this video conversation, Vanguard chairman and CEO Tim Buckley discusses the immediate impact of the war in Ukraine and its associated risks to emerging markets with Nick Eisinger, co-head of our emerging markets active fixed income team. They also discuss the longer-term implications for monetary policy ahead of meetings for the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

The initial impact on the global economy from the tragic events in Ukraine will be delivered primarily through higher commodity prices, according to a new analysis by Vanguard’s global economics team. The higher prices, most notably for energy, will hamper growth and cause broader prices to climb further than previously expected, according to the analysis.

Events in Ukraine are creating a human toll and immeasurable suffering. Economic responses, including sanctions, have led to market turmoil and anxiety about what may come next. An emotional reaction is natural.

Watch this short message from Tim Buckley, chairman and chief executive officer of Vanguard, addressing market risk and volatility amid the invasion into Ukraine by Russian forces.

You’re a patient investor. You understand that the rewards for your diligence are won over time. You’re willing to give up potential extra return because you know the importance of balance—having bonds in your portfolio because they help absorb the blow when stock markets get rocky. You’re in it for the long run.