Keeping perspective in times like these

The era of ultra-low neutral rates may be coming to an end as some of the drivers behind it are lessening or even reversing.

A buy-and-hold strategy often means staying the course, even in turbulent times. How do the expectations of today’s investors line up with their trading behaviors?

A buy-and-hold strategy often means staying the course, even in turbulent times. How do the expectations of today’s investors line up with their trading behaviors?

In case you missed it: Vanguard recently shared its 2022 midyear economic and market outlook. In it, Vanguard’s global and regional chief economists discuss increased inflation, muted growth, and recessionary fears.

Inflation is putting economies on the path to recession. In this short video, Vanguard’s global chief economist discusses how that could be avoided.

Learn about Vanguard’s investment philosophy and disciplined approach in a volatile market environment.

Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why market volatility and downturns happen and why they’re an integral part of investing.

How far will central banks go to curb inflation? Well above neutral rate, Vanguard economists say.

Three scenarios that the Fed could face in the coming months—a hard landing, stagflation, and a softish landing.

As the geopolitical battle over Ukraine intensifies, Europe in particular is exposed to a potential energy crisis, but there would be implications for the global economy too.

With the Fed rapidly raising rates, ETF investors may need reminders on how to approach ETF trades on days of Fed announcements.

Quickly rising global interest rates increase the prospect of dislocations in distinct market corners. Financial markets seek certainty that policymakers can lead the economy to a comfortable place.

With the litany of negative economic and market news, it’s tempting to stay on the sidelines. But, based on market history, Vanguard CIO Greg Davis says it’s better to stay in the game.

Vanguard active bond managers offer their risk-reward outlook for bond funds as inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis speaks with Barron’s Live about recent market and economic trends.

Our global chief economist discusses the probabilities of a soft landing, hard landing, or stagflation.

When a recession occurs, we don’t know precisely when equity markets will recover. But equity prices have frequently started to recover before the end of the recession.

Catch up on selected Vanguard perspectives on the economy, financial markets, portfolio considerations, and more.

Wall Street forecasts of one-year U.S. stock returns tend to be wildly inaccurate. Our outlooks consider a longer horizon.

Tens of thousands of Vanguard clients tuned in for a live webcast with our chairman and CEO. Watch a replay of the January 10, 2023, event.

Despite collapsing natural-gas prices and resilient industrial activity, Europe’s energy crisis isn’t over yet.

China will likely see fairly robust growth in 2023, just enough to keep us out of a global recession.

Investors were feeling more upbeat in February about prospects for the stock market and the economy.

History shows why investors shouldn’t overreact to market volatility.

Vanguard active fixed income: Higher yields continue to help.

We summarize recent events in the U.S. banking sector and our funds’ exposure to First Republic, and we offer perspective for investors.

For only the second time in history, the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded. We discuss the ramifications.

Vanguard’s chief investment officer gives his take on how to navigate the current interest rate environment.

Interest rates may rise further, and economic growth may slow. Expected market returns have mostly edged lower since year-end.

An agreement on the debt ceiling has been signed into law. How should investors respond?

In this 2-minute video, we review how financial markets reacted to past standoffs over raising the U.S. debt limit.

Lawmakers have reached a bipartisan agreement to raise the debt ceiling. How should investors respond?

Vanguard CIO Greg Davis describes the potential paths ahead, including the likelihood of a positive outcome.

In this audiocast, Greg Davis and Sara Devereux discuss the ramifications of a debt default and the precautions we’ve taken.

Learn Vanguard’s views on how investors should respond to the debt ceiling talks in Washington.

Get Vanguard’s perspective on how we’re responding to the debt ceiling debate and what investors should know.

Fresh central bank rate hikes highlight the disconnect between hawkish policymakers and investors who’ve been expecting rate cuts in 2023.

Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, discusses the trade-offs facing the Fed in its efforts to achieve price stability.

We offer suggestions for navigating the high levels of economic uncertainty and market volatility that constitute “Vanguard weather.”

In context, recent tech sector layoffs are limited in scope and not likely to spill over to the broader economy.

Market volatility may come and go in the months ahead, so it’s important for investors to stay focused on what they can control, like maintaining balance and diversification in their portfolios.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to securities issued by Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank. A chart presents Vanguard funds with direct exposure, as well as the extent of those exposures, as of February 28, 2023.

Amid sudden bank closures, we explain our risk management approach and remind investors to focus on what they can control.

In this January 10, 2023, webcast excerpt, Vanguard’s CEO advises nervous investors to control what they can.

Our base case remains a shallow recession in late 2023, but the odds of a “later landing” have increased.

In this short video, Vanguard senior international economist Andrew Patterson explains how we’ll assess inflation data in 2023.

In this short video, Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, discusses what’s ahead for the economy in 2023.

Vanguard is preparing to release its 2023 economic and market outlook. This sneak peek includes insights on inflation, the energy crisis in Europe, long-term structural challenges faced by China, and a more positive outlook on the long-term investment environment.

U.S. shelter costs, a source of inflation pressure, will ease in 2023, bringing the Fed closer to its price stability goal.

The U.S. Treasury market, the world’s deepest, is suffering from a lack of liquidity. With this risk in mind, Vanguard’s active fixed income funds are managing for stability.

Our base case is a global recession in 2023 brought about by the efforts to reduce inflation.