Keeping perspective in times like these

Even for investors who buy stocks for their long-term growth potential, sharp drops can still be hard to stomach. Here are some things to keep in mind if a market tumble makes you feel the need to “do something.”

Our scenarios-based approach to forecasting amid war in Ukraine acknowledges that we can’t predict the future.

Higher real interest rates should cool, but not stop, the labor market and the greater economy. And they bring longer-term benefits.

An inverted yield curve doesn’t necessarily foreshadow a recession, according to Vanguard’s Andrew Patterson and John Madziyire.

The era of ultra-low neutral rates may be coming to an end as some of the drivers behind it are lessening or even reversing.

A buy-and-hold strategy often means staying the course, even in turbulent times. How do the expectations of today’s investors line up with their trading behaviors?

A buy-and-hold strategy often means staying the course, even in turbulent times. How do the expectations of today’s investors line up with their trading behaviors?

In case you missed it: Vanguard recently shared its 2022 midyear economic and market outlook. In it, Vanguard’s global and regional chief economists discuss increased inflation, muted growth, and recessionary fears.

Inflation is putting economies on the path to recession. In this short video, Vanguard’s global chief economist discusses how that could be avoided.

With surging inflation, the euro area will be hiking interest rates into positive territory later this year. Vanguard updates its forecasts for this year and next.

Vanguard has downgraded economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and China, but recession isn’t likely.

A COVID-19 lockdown strategy that succeeded in the pandemic’s early days is likely to hold back China’s economy.

In the rough start to 2022, the trading behavior of the vast majority of Vanguard clients indicates that they have stayed the course.

Learn about Vanguard’s investment philosophy and disciplined approach in a volatile market environment.

Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why market volatility and downturns happen and why they’re an integral part of investing.

Vanguard experts discuss the Fed’s balance sheet reduction plan compared with previous quantitative tightening and potential implications.

The litany of economic and market woes may tempt investors to go all cash, but that’s virtually ensuring a negative return when adjusted for inflation. Patience has historically been the key to portfolio success.

Vanguard’s European chief economist, Jumana Saleheen, says central banks face a stiff test in trying to control inflation and ward off recession.

This piece describes how understanding changes in volatility, stock-bond correlation, and inflation can affect a retirement withdrawal strategy.  It draws from research set to publish in The Journal of Retirement later this year, “Sustainable Withdrawal Rates by Return Environment: A Time-Varying Bayesian Analysis”. Andy Clarke, CFA and Kevin Khang, PhD are featured throughout.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to Russian securities. A chart presents Vanguard funds with direct exposure, as well as the extent of their exposure, as of March 31, 2022.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to Russian securities and will adhere to sanctions against Russia.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked us all. It has caused a tragic loss of life and a humanitarian crisis. The political, social, and economic ramifications are still unfolding. And we know the impact of this war stretches beyond borders, including reaching many of our clients and our employees.

In this video conversation, Vanguard chairman and CEO Tim Buckley discusses the immediate impact of the war in Ukraine and its associated risks to emerging markets with Nick Eisinger, co-head of our emerging markets active fixed income team. They also discuss the longer-term implications for monetary policy ahead of meetings for the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

The initial impact on the global economy from the tragic events in Ukraine will be delivered primarily through higher commodity prices, according to a new analysis by Vanguard’s global economics team. The higher prices, most notably for energy, will hamper growth and cause broader prices to climb further than previously expected, according to the analysis.

Events in Ukraine are creating a human toll and immeasurable suffering. Economic responses, including sanctions, have led to market turmoil and anxiety about what may come next. An emotional reaction is natural.

Watch this short message from Tim Buckley, chairman and chief executive officer of Vanguard, addressing market risk and volatility amid the invasion into Ukraine by Russian forces.

You’re a patient investor. You understand that the rewards for your diligence are won over time. You’re willing to give up potential extra return because you know the importance of balance—having bonds in your portfolio because they help absorb the blow when stock markets get rocky. You’re in it for the long run.

How far will central banks go to curb inflation? Well above neutral rate, Vanguard economists say.

Three scenarios that the Fed could face in the coming months—a hard landing, stagflation, and a softish landing.

As the geopolitical battle over Ukraine intensifies, Europe in particular is exposed to a potential energy crisis, but there would be implications for the global economy too.

With the Fed rapidly raising rates, ETF investors may need reminders on how to approach ETF trades on days of Fed announcements.

Our latest monthly survey of global economies has raised the inflation rate forecast for the U.S., while recession is likely for the euro area.

Quickly rising global interest rates increase the prospect of dislocations in distinct market corners. Financial markets seek certainty that policymakers can lead the economy to a comfortable place.

Inflation is becoming broad-based and recession is likely in Europe but not in the U.S., at least for 2022.

With the litany of negative economic and market news, it’s tempting to stay on the sidelines. But, based on market history, Vanguard CIO Greg Davis says it’s better to stay in the game.

Vanguard active bond managers offer their risk-reward outlook for bond funds as inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates.

Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis speaks with Barron’s Live about recent market and economic trends.

Our global chief economist discusses the probabilities of a soft landing, hard landing, or stagflation.

When a recession occurs, we don’t know precisely when equity markets will recover. But equity prices have frequently started to recover before the end of the recession.

Catch up on selected Vanguard perspectives on the economy, financial markets, portfolio considerations, and more.

Our economists have raised their 2023 growth target for China but now expect a contraction in the euro-area economy.

Wall Street forecasts of one-year U.S. stock returns tend to be wildly inaccurate. Our outlooks consider a longer horizon.

Tens of thousands of Vanguard clients tuned in for a live webcast with our chairman and CEO. Watch a replay of the January 10, 2023, event.

Despite collapsing natural-gas prices and resilient industrial activity, Europe’s energy crisis isn’t over yet.

China will likely see fairly robust growth in 2023, just enough to keep us out of a global recession.

Recessions likely have begun in the United Kingdom and euro area, and a mild U.S. recession this year remains likely.

Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, discusses the trade-offs facing the Fed in its efforts to achieve price stability.

We offer suggestions for navigating the high levels of economic uncertainty and market volatility that constitute “Vanguard weather.”

Market volatility may come and go in the months ahead, so it’s important for investors to stay focused on what they can control, like maintaining balance and diversification in their portfolios.

Vanguard funds have had limited exposure to securities issued by Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank. A chart presents Vanguard funds with direct exposure, as well as the extent of those exposures, as of February 28, 2023.

Amid sudden bank closures, we explain our risk management approach and remind investors to focus on what they can control.

In this January 10, 2023, webcast excerpt, Vanguard’s CEO advises nervous investors to control what they can.

Our base case remains a shallow recession in late 2023, but the odds of a “later landing” have increased.

In this short video, Vanguard senior international economist Andrew Patterson explains how we’ll assess inflation data in 2023.

In this short video, Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, discusses what’s ahead for the economy in 2023.

Vanguard is preparing to release its 2023 economic and market outlook. This sneak peek includes insights on inflation, the energy crisis in Europe, long-term structural challenges faced by China, and a more positive outlook on the long-term investment environment.

U.S. shelter costs, a source of inflation pressure, will ease in 2023, bringing the Fed closer to its price stability goal.

Our latest monthly survey of global economies has raised the inflation rate forecast for the U.S.

The U.S. Treasury market, the world’s deepest, is suffering from a lack of liquidity. With this risk in mind, Vanguard’s active fixed income funds are managing for stability.

Our base case is a global recession in 2023 brought about by the efforts to reduce inflation.