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Perspectives and news
Expert insight
What earnings estimates miss about the equity market
A Vanguard analysis shows why lofty earnings expectations shouldn’t overly concern the U.S. equity market.
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Why investors shouldn’t overreact to talk of a recession
When a recession occurs, we don’t know precisely when equity markets will recover. But equity prices have frequently started to recover before the end of the recession.
Getting inside the Fed's head
Three scenarios that the Fed could face in the coming months—a hard landing, stagflation, and a softish landing.
Central banks likely to go above neutral rates to fight inflation
How far will central banks go to curb inflation? Well above neutral rate, Vanguard economists say.
Research spotlight
Economics and markets
Megatrends—Estimating neutral rates: Why the era of ultra-low rates may be coming to an end
A new Megatrends paper explores equilibrium interest rates, the forces that shape them, and where they may be headed.
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Vanguard's portfolio construction framework: From investing principles to custom portfolio solutions
A Vanguard white paper looks at ways to tailor portfolios to address specific investor goals and preferences.
The Vanguard Participant Saving Rate Index
Seven in 10 defined contribution plan participants are saving enough to replace 65% of their salary in retirement. A new Vanguard white paper looks at several ways plan sponsors can help participants boost these replacement rates. Among them: Automatic enrollment defaults and enhanced employer contributions.
Safeguarding retirement in a bear market
This paper explores the effects of “sequence-of-return” risk on retirees who depend on a financial portfolio to generate income. Vanguard researchers find that retirees receiving a concentrated series of poor returns are 31% more likely to outlive their wealth, possess 11% lower retirement income streams, and leave 37% smaller bequests.
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