Vanguard’s economic and market outlook for 2024

December 12, 2023

(Our economic and market outlook for 2024 reflects the house view of Vanguard’s global economics and markets teams.)

A return to sound money. It’s a theme we at Vanguard have been communicating for more than a year, and in 2024 we believe that the greater investing world will come around to its implications.

Sound money is the result when interest rates are above the rate of inflation, a development we expect to persist in the years ahead. For well-diversified investors, the persistence of higher real interest rates provides a solid foundation for long-term risk-adjusted returns.

In this video, Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, puts the return to sound money into the context of our recent and atypical low-rate environment—and explains why the development is so positive. 

Joe Davis VEMO 2024 video

Video length: 3:51

Notes: All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

A closer look

Roger Aliaga-Diaz


Labor market factors support a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy.

Jumana Saleheen


Monetary policy starting to slow euro area, U.K. economies.

Qian Wang


China likely to stimulate its economy while Australia’s policy remains tight. 

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Return forecasts

Expected market returns, volatility levels over the next 10, 30 years.

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A resilient U.S.

Workforce and productivity gains are driving continued economic strength.

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U.S. stocks

Valuations have rarely been as high as they are today, a reason for caution.