Our economic outlook for Canada

March 21, 2025

Our outlook for year-end 2025

1.3%

Economic growth,
year over year

We’ve lowered our forecast for Canada’s full-year GDP growth by a half percentage point, from 1.8% to 1.3%. Uncertainty about trade developments is likely to leave businesses hesitant to invest and consumers less likely to spend. We anticipate material effects from uncertainty even in the absence of a worst-case scenario for trade. GDP grew by a greater-than-expected 0.6% in the fourth quarter, higher than upwardly revised growth of 0.5% in the third quarter. On a per capita basis, GDP rose by 0.2%, ending a string of six consecutive quarterly declines.

2.4%

Core inflation, year over year

Inflation shot higher in February as a two-month sales-tax break ended mid-month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year over year, having held below 2% for the three previous months. The level would have been higher had it not been for a slowing in the pace of year-over-year gasoline price increases. Prices of core items, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose by 0.9% month over month, after falling in January. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation was 2.6%, up from 2.2% in January. We have raised our forecast for full-year core inflation from 2.2% to 2.4, which would keep core inflation above the midpoint of the 1%–3% target set by the Bank of Canada (BoC). The forecast reflects our expectations for a relatively modest tariff regime.

2.25%

Monetary policy rate

We have lowered our forecast for the BoC’s year-end policy rate by 25 basis points, to 2.25%. Although we expect the bank to remain wary of inflation and inflation expectations, we don’t foresee a worst-case scenario for tariff implementation, which would allow for some BoC dovishness in the face of slowing economic growth amid elevated uncertainty. The BoC continued its rate-cutting cycle on March 12, lowering its overnight rate target by 25 basis points, to 2.75%. The BoC has cut its policy rate in seven consecutive meetings by a total of 2.25 percentage points. The bank emphasized that trade tensions with the U.S. “will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada.” It said its governing council would carefully assess “the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.”

7.0%

Unemployment rate

We expect trade-related uncertainty to affect businesses’ hiring plans and to slow job gains. After three months of strong job gains, employment was little-changed in February, with the addition of 1,100 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.6%. While a challenging labor supply environment will help limit upside, we expect the unemployment rate to rise to 7% by year-end amid elevated uncertainty.

What I’m watching


Rate cuts should spur investment and consumption

For two years, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained varying degrees of restrictive monetary policy. Policymakers have raised and lowered their interest rate target while keeping it above 3.25%. That’s the upper end of their estimate of the neutral policy range—a theoretical rate level that would neither stimulate nor inhibit economic growth.

While restrictive policy has returned inflation to the BoC’s 1%–3% target range, the economy is clearly inhibited. Personal consumption grew at an average annual pace of just 1.4% in the four quarters before the June 2024 rate cut—less than half its average pace in the run-up to previous rate-cutting cycles. Over the same period, business investment in long-lasting assets used to produce goods or services contracted at a 1.9% average annual rate. The historical record confirms the power of lower rates to lift growth, however, and we expect them to do so again, by spurring improvements in consumption and investment. 


Vytas Maciulis

Vytas Maciulis, CFA
Vanguard Economist

GDP and its components: Comparing average growth rates before and after rate cuts

Notes: Underlying data reflect quarterly rates of annualized economic growth (gross domestic product) from Q1 1992 through Q2 2024, as well as changes to the Bank of Canada’s interest rate target during that period. The historical averages reflect changes in GDP during the four quarters preceding the start and following the conclusion of each rate-cutting cycle, except the one that began in June 2024.

Sources: Vanguard calculations, based on Statistics Canada data from LSEG as of June 30, 2024.

Notes: All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. 

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