A chart showing Vanguard’s expectations for the likely ranges of 30-year annualized returns, as well as median levels of volatility, for nine classes of equity securities, nine classes of fixed income securities, and commodities. The chart also shows Vanguard’s expectations for the annualized rate of U.S. inflation and its median volatility. All the projections are based on a March 31, 2025, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model. For equities, the projections are: U.S. equities, 4.6% to 6.6% and 18.2% volatility; global equities excluding the United States (unhedged), 6.5% to 8.5% returns and 21.9% volatility; global ex-U.S. developed markets equities (unhedged), 6.6% to 8.6% returns and 21.3% volatility; emerging markets equities (unhedged), 5.2% to 7.2% returns and 29.8% volatility; U.S. value, 5.3% to 7.3% returns and 21.2% volatility; U.S. growth, 3.9% to 5.9% returns and 19.3% volatility; U.S. large-cap, 4.5% to 6.5% returns and 18% volatility; U.S. small cap, 5.5% to 7.5% returns and 22.2% volatility; and U.S. real estate investment trusts, 5.0% to 7.0% returns and 20.2% volatility. For fixed income, the projections are: U.S. aggregate bonds, 4.2% to 5.2% returns and 6.7% volatility; global bonds ex-U.S. (hedged), 3.8% to 4.8% returns and 5.3% volatility; U.S. Treasury bonds, 3.9% to 4.9% returns and 7.1% volatility; U.S. intermediate credit bonds, 4.2% to 5.2% returns and 5.3% volatility; U.S. high-yield corporate bonds, 5.6% to 6.6% returns and 10.4% volatility; emerging markets sovereign bonds, 6.3% to 7.3% returns and 12.1% volatility; U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, 3.1% to 4.1% returns and 5.5% volatility; U.S. cash, 2.8% to 3.8% returns and 1.6% volatility; and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, 4.3% to 5.3% returns and 4.2% volatility. For commodities, the projections are 4.5% to 6.5% returns and 19.8% volatility. The rate of U.S. inflation is forecast at 1.5% to 2.5%, with 2.1% volatility.