In the chart view, hovering over the high or low end of a return forecast will reveal our median expectation for volatility. It also will show a range of 2 percentage points around the 50th percentile of the distribution of likely returns for equities and a 1-point range around the 50th percentile of likely returns for fixed income. More extreme returns are possible, as shown in the table view.
Horizon: 10 years
30 years
Format: Chart
Table
10-year annualized return forecasts
A chart showing Vanguard’s expectations for the likely ranges of 10-year annualized returns, as well as median levels of volatility, for nine classes of equity securities, nine classes of fixed income securities, and commodities. The chart also shows Vanguard’s expectations for the annualized rate of U.S. inflation and its median volatility. All the projections are based on the June 30, 2024, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model. For equities, the projections are: U.S. equities, 3.2% to 5.2% and 17.0% volatility; global equities excluding the United States (unhedged), 6.9% to 8.9% returns and 18.4% volatility; global ex-U.S. developed markets equities (unhedged), 7.0% to 8.0% returns and 16.8% volatility; emerging markets equities (unhedged), 5.7% to 7.7% returns and 26.1% volatility; U.S. value, 4.7% to 6.7% returns and 19.3% volatility; U.S. growth, 0.1% to 2.1% returns and 18.1% volatility; U.S. large-cap, 3.0% to 5.0% returns and 16.7% volatility; U.S. small cap, 5.0% to 7.0% returns and 22.6% volatility; and U.S. real estate investment trusts, 4.2% to 6.2% returns and 19.9% volatility. For fixed income, the projections are: U.S. aggregate bonds, 4.5% to 5.5% returns and 5.7% volatility; global bonds ex-U.S. (hedged), 4.4% to 5.4% returns and 4.4% volatility; U.S. Treasury bonds, 4.2% to 5.2% returns and 5.9% volatility; U.S. intermediate credit bonds, 4.8% to 5.8% returns and 5.2% volatility; U.S. high-yield corporate bonds, 5.6% to 6.6% returns and 10.0% volatility; emerging markets sovereign bonds, 5.6% to 6.6% returns and 10.0% volatility; U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, 3.5% to 4.5% returns and 5.1% volatility; U.S. cash, 3.9% to 4.9% returns and 1.4% volatility; and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, 4.8% to 5.8% returns and 4.8% volatility. For commodities, the projections are 6.2% to 8.2% returns and 16.7% volatility. The rate of U.S. inflation is forecast at 1.9% to 2.9%, with 2.3% volatility.
