A chart showing Vanguard’s expectations for the likely ranges of 10-year annualized returns, as well as median levels of volatility, for nine classes of equity securities, 12 classes of fixed income securities, commodities, and a U.S. dollar index. The chart also shows Vanguard’s expectations for the annualized rate of U.S. inflation and its median volatility. All the projections are based on an April 30, 2025, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model. For equities, the projections are: U.S. equities, 4.3% to 6.3% and 15.1% volatility; global equities excluding the United States (unhedged), 6.0% to 8.0% returns and 18.9% volatility; global ex-U.S. developed markets equities (unhedged), 6.6% to 8.6% returns and 18.4% volatility; emerging markets equities (unhedged), 3.7% to 5.7% returns and 25.4% volatility; U.S. value, 6.4% to 8.4% returns and 18.6% volatility; U.S. growth, 3.1% to 5.1% returns and 16.1% volatility; U.S. large-cap, 4.2% to 6.2% returns and 14.9% volatility; U.S. small cap, 6.0% to 8.0% returns and 19.7% volatility; and U.S. real estate investment trusts, 3.5% to 5.5% returns and 18.3% volatility. For fixed income, the projections are: U.S. aggregate bonds, 3.9% to 4.9% returns and 6.2% volatility; global bonds ex-U.S. (hedged), 4.2% to 5.2% returns and 4.9% volatility; U.S. Treasury bonds, 3.6% to 4.6% returns and 6.7% volatility; U.S. credit bonds, 4.2% to 5.2% returns and 6.5% volatility; U.S. high-yield corporate bonds, 5.0% to 6.0% returns and 9.3% volatility; emerging markets sovereign bonds, 5.6% to 6.6% returns and 11.4% volatility; U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, 2.7% to 3.7% returns and 5.1% volatility; U.S. mortgage-backed securities, 4.3% to 5.3% returns and 4.2% volatility; U.S. municipal bonds, 3.4% to 4.4% returns and 4.9% volatility; U.S. high-yield municipal bonds, 3.9% to 4.9% returns and 7.7% volatility; U.S. cash, 3.0% to 4.0% returns and 1.1% volatility; and U.S. municipal cash, 2.5% to 3.5% returns and 0.5% volatility. For commodities, the projections are 4.8% to 6.8% returns and 18% volatility. The rate of U.S. inflation is forecast at 1.5% to 2.5%, with 1.8% volatility. And for the Vanguard U.S. dollar index, the projections are negative 0.1% to 0.9% returns with 8.5% volatility.