The two lines of the chart show data on an every-other-month basis from February 2017 through August 2024.
One shows investors’ expected probability of a stock market disaster over the next 12 months. It remained steady at 4.4% for both August 2024 and June 2024.
The second line shows investors’ expected probability of an economic disaster over the next three years. It decreased to 4.4% in August 2024 from 5% two months earlier.