A line graph shows the U.S. unemployment rate, as well as Vanguard’s estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The period covered is 1970 to present. Throughout the period, the unemployment rate is far more volatile than Vanguard’s estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Unemployment ranged from a low of less than 4 percent, reached toward the beginning of the period and again, twice, in recent years. It peaked at about 15 percent in 2020. Between the extremes of its peak and troughs, unemployment spiked several times, rising several percentage points in a few years or less. Declines in the unemployment rate were consistently more gradual than increases. Vanguard’s estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment ranged from roughly 4 percent, where it hovered for most of the aughts, to nearly 8% in 2020. Most recently, unemployment has edged up and Vanguard’s estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment has edged down, so that the two essentially match.