A line compares the actual 10-year rolling returns of the 60/40 portfolio against expected returns from the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) dating back to 2011. A solid line shows that actual 10-year annualized rolling returns ranged from about 4.6% as of September 30, 2011 to 6.9% as of September 30, 2024. A dotted line represents the interquartile range for the VCMM over the same period. The solid and dotted lines generally follow a similar trajectory, showing that the 60/40 has performed in line with Vanguard’s expectations. The dotted line extends to year 2034 and shows that Vanguard expectations for returns to the 60/40 have improved.