A line chart showing year-over-year percentage changes in shelter inflation and services ex-shelter inflation since 2015. Shelter inflation largely outpaces services ex-shelter inflation until November 2020, when it temporarily dips below services ex-shelter inflation until May 2022. Shelter inflation peaks around 8% in March 2023 and falls to about 5.5% in April 2024; we forecast it to fall further to about 4.8% by December 2024. Shelter inflation has been above its historical average during this period except from April 2020 to September 2021. Services ex-shelter inflation peaks around 5.6% in October 2022 and falls to about 3.6% in March 2024; we forecast it to fall further to about 2.9% by December 2024. Services ex-shelter inflation was mostly below its historical average until March 2021 and has been above it since.