A dotted line going up in a gentle slope shows the trend line of GDP in the euro area and the UK based on data in the years before COVID. Two solid lines show actual GDP for those two economies from the first quarter of 2018 through the first quarter of 2024. They track the dotted trend line closely until they plunge in mid-2020 before recovering somewhat in subsequent quarters, but never reaching the pre-COVID trend line. Two dots show our forecasts for year-end 2024 but both are still below the trend line.